The Man Booker prize will have its first US winner in two months’ time, bookies’ odds for the longlist suggest: at the time of writing, five make Hanya Yanagihara’s A Little Life favourite at between 2/1 and 4/1, with only Paddy Power – by coincidence the one bookie that made the eventual winner Richard Flanagan its favourite at the same stage in 2014 – preferring Marilynne Robinson’s Lila (10/3), which its rivals place second.
Just behind the leaders are the most prominent British contender and Ireland’s lone representative, Andrew O’Hagan and the 2007 winner Anne Enright, usually at odds of between 6/1 and 8/1. But there’s disagreement about who’s just behind them, with wide variations in how potential members of this chasing group are priced. Anne Tyler is in third place at 6/1 for some, but is way down the field at a tempting 16/1 at Paddy Power. Marlon James similarly challenges the top Americans in Coral’s odds (7/1), but punters fancying the Jamaican will bet at Ladbrokes where he’s available at 20/1.
Even wider is the gap between prices for Tom McCarthy, the 2010 shortlistee, who has received the double-edged sword of the LRB bookshop’s endorsement in the form of a 100-copy limited edition of Satin Island (each one at £185 and “printed on Munken Pure Rough Cream 120 gsm paper and bound in dark green Tohsho Japanese silk”. Copies are still available). Joint third with Tyler at 6/1 at Ladbrokes, he drops to last place at Coral (14/1) and Paddy Power (20/1). Pricing is more consistent for another Brit, Sunjeev Sahota, fifth-ranked at Bet365 (13/2) and Paddy Power (7/1), although Ladbrokes again stands out with a generous quote of 12/1.
The other longlistees – Bill Clegg, Laila Lalami (both US), Chigozie Obioma (Nigeria), Anuradha Roy (India) and Anna Smaill (New Zealand) – who make up the longlist’s peloton, with odds mostly longer than 10/1.
They can take succour, however, from the fact that a year ago Flanagan’s The Narrow Road to the Deep North was a 16/1 backmarker at Ladbrokes; and, conversely, Yanagihara may swiftly realise that being Booker favourite is not necessarily a cause for rejoicing. Last year, Joseph O’Neill was one bookie’s no 1 after the longlist’s release, but a month later he didn’t make the shortlist – a rerun of Alan Hollinghurst’s galling experience in 2011. Howard Jacobson took the prize in 2010, despite suspiciously sizeable gambles on McCarthy’s C, William Hill’s 11/10 favourite. In 2013, bookies had Jim Crace as a short-odds favourite on the eve of the ceremony, but he lost to Eleanor Catton. Unless you’re Hilary Mantel, wearing the Booker yellow jersey can look like something of a curse.
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