Ece Temelkuran: ‘Some, who you assume to be your people, will normalise Trump’

Dear American friend,

By the time my letter reaches you, you’ll have heard all the clever ways of saying, “We are fucked!” Thousands of soundbites will have told you, “Get up and fight.” Others will have shared tips on mourning and healing. The strange thing is that even though you’ll be in the same dark circus of emotions, everything you hear from your political side will add to your anger. That is what defeat the second time around does: the shame of losing morphs into self-hatred. You begin to be enraged by your ilk more than the opponent. That is why I am writing directly to you. Because in the coming months, your emotional state will impact domestic and global politics.

Sure, you remember. In 2016, when you were in a similar state of rage and depression, the collective consolation was political humour and the idea that Trump would quickly crash and burn. This time around, whenever he comes up with an outrageous idea or promises some other lunacy, you’ll again see people saying, “No, he wouldn’t do that.” Because when people feel helpless, they soothe themselves with wishful thinking. This was what we witnessed in my home country of Turkey, as well as Italy, India, and all the other countries that have been down the same road.

Yet, the new chapter will come with an additional surprise: you will experience the magnetic magic of power. Some, who you assume to be your people, will decide tonormalise Trump and find ways to make themselves at home with the insanity. Hopefully, it won’t happen, but just in case, prepare yourself for the most painful bit. The absolute desperation when you witness some friends, first hesitantly murmuring, then confidently saying, “It is not as bad as we imagined.” You will watch in horror as they fall in line without being forced.

Then, you’ll notice that the new morality created in the White House trickles down to the people. The fundamental moral values you assumed were non-negotiable will be debated shamelessly. They will not right away cancel women’s rights, but they will begin to float questions about those rights. They will not destroy the rule of law tomorrow afternoon, but you’ll hear Trump’s pundits say how courts are slowing down the process of “making America great again”. Trump will not walk into the White House with military boots, but here and there, you’ll see more police violence on campuses and hear people saying, “Well, the protesters were crossing the line anyway.” The political debate will be turned into such a mess that you’ll forget that in the 21st century, fascism comes to power not with goose steps but through elaborate dance moves.

Meanwhile, in about one or two years, you will have shouted “No” so often and against so many things that you will be exhausted. Many will ask again, “So, where is hope?” However, you’ll realise that this time, it is not hope but something more essential that is lost: faith – in politics and your people. And that is the loss that will turn you into a neutral element, a zero in the political equation.

So, this is a friendly warning to stop the emotional spiralling in its early stages. Try to put self-sabotaging emotions in the freezer for four years. Your job is not to have quarrels with Trump supporters now or get pissed off with your side. If I may, your job is to replace your anger with attention. Trump surely will drive you crazy every day with new outlandish stuff, but that is only showmanship. The dangerous bit happens through the change in the institutions. Keep your eye on the institutions.

It is not as thrilling as the blame game on your own side, but it is essential to keep it together so you can tell the Democratic party to get serious. Tell them that Trump is the strange fruit of the political system, not a deviation. To change the broken system, Democrats must consider how to achieve equality, dignity and justice for all. They must restore trust in politics and cure the nihilism and cynicism that had taken overlong before Trump came on to the scene.

And please, this time around, don’t assume that what happened in all those “crazy countries” won’t happen to you. Because, for us, it started just like this.

• How To Lose A Country: The Seven Steps From Democracy to Fascism by Ece Temelkuran is out now published by Canongate.

Joseph O’Connor: ‘He might see it as a badge of honour to be dissed by liberal countries’

Captain Punchdown returns. The man who once publicly mocked a disabled reporter. And it’s no more Mister Nice Guy. Political thugs all over the world will be emboldened. The anniversary of the January 6 attack on the Capitol will be memorable. He’ll probably make it a national holiday.

I think it will mean the end of the Democratic party in its current demonstrably unelectable form, and that will be no bad thing, although the splits will be painful. It will also pour concrete on the grave of the McCain-era Republican party. Far from making America great, Trump Redux will see the United States become a further-divided nation that is increasingly misunderstood and disliked around the world. Probably he doesn’t care; he might see it as a badge of honour to be dissed by countries where they have liberal fripperies like a social welfare system. But the isolationism will isolate. It’s sad.

The return of the wall-builder-in-chief is extraordinarily damaging to the valuable and honourable idea that electoral politics is a profession best begun with an apprenticeship of service. The victory of a four-times criminally indicted, twice impeached felon will encourage a particular type of newcoming extremist. That’s what’s most worrying. His cabinet will look like the cantina in Star Wars.

It will set back the progress on climate change by a decade we don’t have to spare. Women will be looked after, ‘whether they like it or not’. The suffering of the Palestinian people will worsen, if such a thing may be imagined. Immigrants and asylum seekers will be targets for even viler abuse. It is hard to see how his promise to deport 15 million people could be carried out, but it seems likely that mass expulsion at gunpoint will become an everyday reality in the land of the free and the home of the brave. Families will be separated. More children will spend time in cages.

Here in Dublin, where I live, the news has been greeted with gloomy resignation in government circles and with much practice of the ancient art of putting on a brave face. The relationship between Ireland and the United States is old and close, but there are concerns that Trump’s planned tariff war and tax changes will rock the Irish economy. Irish membership of the EU is valued deeply by most of our people; there’s a sense that pro-European sentiment will be regarded as a shootable offence in the White House and that the affection of recent American presidents for Irish culture will, for a variety of reasons, not be continuing. Seamus Heaney may not be quoted quite so often, let us say.

In essence, Putting America First means seeing everywhere else as an inconvenience. The Irish know a bit about what that feels like. His rhetoric about immigrants could come straight from the ugly pages of Punch magazine in the 1850s, in which refugees to England from the Irish famine are portrayed as apes and murderers, bringers of terrorism and disease.

Once, during the campaign, he made me laugh. Onstage at a rally, wearing a truck driver’s fluorescent safety vest, he quipped that it made him look thin. But most things he said ranged from disconcerting to truly terrifying. Presumably, that’s what they wanted, the millions of decent, betrayed Americans who voted for him: a guy who doesn’t play by the rules. Be careful what you wish for.

• The Ghosts of Rome by Joseph O’Connor will be published by Penguin in January.

Andrey Kurkov: ‘Without American aid, Ukraine may find itself in a hopeless situation’

Trump’s victory in the US presidential election initially silenced Ukraine. Only weapons – all along the more than 500 miles of the front line – continued to roar, while Russian missiles and drones made ever fiercer attacks against Ukrainian cities and villages.

In silence, Ukrainians mourned the loss of one more shield of hope. Pre-election commentaries from journalists and political scientists, and the speeches of Trump himself, had made it very clear that Trump in the White House would mean greatly reduced military aid to Ukraine and that this would force President Zelenskyy to sit down at the negotiating table with Vladimir Putin.

The outcome of such negotiations is easy to predict. Russia continues to demand that the Ukrainian leadership “recognise reality”. This is shorthand for saying that Ukraine must give up to Russia the territories which have been captured and occupied, and also the areas of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions which are currently free. These free territories are huge and include two major cities: Kherson and Zaporizhzhia.

But today the shock wave has passed. People are beginning to share their dark visions of the future. In his video address about the US election, Zelenskyy tried to calm Ukrainians, assuring them that he and Donald Trump had established cordial relations and that, during a personal meeting in September, Donald Trump heard everything that Volodymyr Zelenskyy wished to tell him.

Ukrainians are waiting for Trump himself to address them, as Biden did on his visit to Ukraine. Ukrainians need to hear Trump promise not to abandon them to their fate. Few believe the president-elect will make any such promise. It is not in his character or on his agenda. Neither will Zelenskyy be pushed into unfavourable, not to say dangerous, negotiations with Putin. There will most likely be a reduction in military and financial aid.

The “Ukrainian problem” will be handed over to the European Union as the leaders, and some of them have already taken up the baton. Trump’s victory in the presidential election will force the EU to focus on its own military doctrine and a common defence policy. European military aid to Ukraine will continue, but, as before, it will be delivered haltingly, preventing Ukraine from planning ahead in general, let alone planning for a counteroffensive.

Ultimately, without American aid, Ukraine may find itself in a hopeless situation, and then unfavourable negotiations with Russia may become inevitable. This in turn will lead to more migration from Ukraine, especially of young people.

The silence has been broken, but Ukrainians are still only murmuring their disappointment. The discussions on social media are muted. In the US, the majorityof the older generation of the Ukrainian diaspora voted for Donald Trump, but this is not discussed here either. Ukrainians who know about it keep quiet, understanding that this sector of the US population, just like most post-Soviet US citizens, want a “firm hand” in politics and in the economy. And in this they are somewhat similar to today’s citizens of the Russian federation.

How to Lose a Country by Ece Temelkuran (Canongate Books, £10.99). To support the Guardian and Observer, order your copy at guardianbookshop.com. Delivery charges may apply.

The Ghosts Of Rome by Joseph O’Connor (Vintage Publishing, £20). To support the Guardian and Observer, order your copy at guardianbookshop.com. Delivery charges may apply.