For decades, Paul Rogers, the indefatigable, lateral- thinking, emeritus professor of peace studies, has warned about the consequences of western military adventures, urging us to consider the root causes of conflict.
In his new book, Irregular War (IB Tauris) , he reflects on Isis, al-Qaida, Boko Haram, Al Shabab, and the Taliban - all separate manifestations, he says, of a new non-state dynamic driving international conflict through asymmetric and hybrid warfare.
But their significance is more fundamental. They are part of what Rogers calls “an historical shift towards revolts from the margins”. And such revolts are made more likely by “the widening global socio-economic divide and the onset of climate disruption”.
The key word, one that crops up time and again in this important and thought-provoking treatise, is “marginalisation”. Marginalisation was one of the main factors, with anger at autocracy, compounded by the high rate of unemployment among the (educated) youth that fuelled the Arab Awakening in 2011, Rogers argues.
The causes of conflict are many and deep – economic, political, societal, environmental, demographic.
In this holistic approach, he points to the enormous and growing gap between the world’s rich and poor. But the old division between rich countries and poor countries no longer applies as figures from the US demonstrate dramatically.
Rogers points to David Hulme’s book, Global Poverty: Global Governance and Poor People in the Post-2015 Era – while the global poverty rate may be declining slowly, the relative poverty rate in high-income countries has increased, and has more than doubled in the developing world. Meanwhile, the global military-industrial complex consumes some $1,700 bn a year.
There are likely to be two fundamental trends threatening world security, according to Rogers. One is “the increasing marginalisation of the majority of the world’s people caused by the workings of the neo-liberal system of international economic activity” which concentrates most of the fruits of economic growth in the hands of a transglobal elite of some 1.5bn people.
The other is climate change. “It is now well nigh certain”, he writes, “that climate change is going to lead to huge problems of food supply and also to far more dangerous episodes of extreme weather, with profound political and social effects”. The author adds: “Overall, it is the link between environmental limits and a world economy not fit for purpose that underpins the security challenge”.
Rogers says he is cautiously optimistic. He points to developments in alternative energy technology, notably solar and wind power. Some of the most significant movements for social change in the twentieth century were notable for their non-violent approach. Nuclear catastrophe has been avoided.
“The next two decades”, he concludes, “ are likely to prove pivotal in avoiding an unstable and insecure world, but there is immense potential for positive change and huge possibilities”.
